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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 3 at the 11

Detroit Lions 0 – Chicago Bears 3

What Actually Happened

(4:21) 5-M.Prater 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +2.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.38 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 11, worth +0.02 EP
KICK +2.21 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 22, worth -0.47 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP