4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 16

Baltimore Ravens 0 – New England Patriots 2

What Actually Happened

(5:58) 9-J.Tucker 34 yard field goal is BLOCKED (58-S.McClellin), Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch, recovered by BAL-93-L.Guy at NE 26. BAL 9-Tucker breaks streak of 35 consecutive FG, 5th longest streak all-time.

The Three Options

GO +1.48 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.91 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 16, worth -0.55 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 26, worth -1.12 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model