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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 20 at the 41

New England Patriots 2 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(8:00) 6-R.Allen punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.22 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.77 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 41, worth -1.75 EP
KICK -0.06 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.35 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.46 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 12, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model