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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 20

Baltimore Ravens 20 – New England Patriots 30

What Actually Happened

(2:07) 9-J.Tucker 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +2.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +3.92 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 20, worth -0.85 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
What Happened
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 30, worth -1.23 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP