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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 4 at the 57

New England Patriots 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(11:04) 6-R.Allen punts 56 yards to BAL 1, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-18-M.Slater.

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.77 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 57, worth -2.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.43 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 17, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP