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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 16 at the 74

Baltimore Ravens 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(12:02) 4-S.Koch punts 37 yards to NE 37, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 23-P.Chung.

The Three Options

GO -2.89 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.90 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 74, worth -4.64 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -2.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 32, worth -2.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model