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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 84

Baltimore Ravens 3 – New England Patriots 16

What Actually Happened

(12:51) 4-S.Koch punts 56 yards to NE 28, Center-46-M.Cox. 23-P.Chung to NE 35 for 7 yards (41-A.Levine; 48-P.Onwuasor).

The Three Options

GO -0.96 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.63 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 84, worth -4.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.46 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 42, worth -2.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.50 EP