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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Baltimore Ravens
4th & 12 at the 46
Baltimore Ravens 0 – New England Patriots 9
What Actually Happened
(13:02) 4-S.Koch punts 35 yards to NE 11, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.
The Three Options
GO
-0.94 EP
-
28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.51 EP
- 72% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 46, worth -2.65 EP
KICK
-1.04 EP
- 37% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
- 63% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.80 EP
PUNT
-0.14 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- New England Patriots would take over around their own 13, worth -0.14 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
