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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 64

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(4:47) 5-M.Bosher punts 53 yards to LA 11, Center-47-J.Harris. 11-T.Austin pushed ob at LA 36 for 25 yards (80-L.Toilolo). PENALTY on ATL-55-P.Worrilow, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LA 36.

The Three Options

GO +0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.60 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 64, worth -3.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.18 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 22, worth -1.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.32 EP