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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 10 at the 90

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(9:21) 5-M.Bosher punts 52 yards to LA 38, Center-47-J.Harris. 11-T.Austin to LA 43 for 5 yards (29-C.Goodwin).

The Three Options

GO -3.22 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.32 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 90, worth -5.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -3.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 47, worth -3.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model