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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 7 at the 55

Atlanta Falcons 42 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(11:19) 5-M.Bosher punts 42 yards to LA 13, Center-47-J.Harris. 11-T.Austin pushed ob at LA 23 for 10 yards (47-J.Harris).

The Three Options

GO -0.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.71 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 55, worth -2.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.92 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 16, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP