4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 4 at the 77

Atlanta Falcons 21 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(5:58) 5-M.Bosher punts 53 yards to LA 24, Center-47-J.Harris. 11-T.Austin pushed ob at ATL 49 for 27 yards (42-P.DiMarco; 14-E.Weems).

The Three Options

GO -1.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.97 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 77, worth -4.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.72 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 34, worth -1.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model