4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 2 at the 80

Atlanta Falcons 14 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(10:21) 5-M.Bosher punts 66 yards to LA 14, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by ATL-14-E.Weems.

The Three Options

GO -1.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.96 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 80, worth -4.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.28 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 37, worth -2.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.27 EP