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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 58

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Atlanta Falcons 14

What Actually Happened

(11:39) 6-J.Hekker punts 46 yards to ATL 12, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-55-N.Grigsby.

The Three Options

GO -0.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.86 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 58, worth -2.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.69 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 18, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model