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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 9 at the 46

Miami Dolphins 7 – Arizona Cardinals 6

What Actually Happened

(2:58) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 36 yards to ARI 10, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-48-M.Gray.

The Three Options

GO -0.40 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.74 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 46, worth -2.36 EP
KICK -1.31 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 13, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model