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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 11 at the 76

Arizona Cardinals 23 – Miami Dolphins 23

What Actually Happened

(1:39) (Punt formation) 2-D.Butler punts 43 yards to MIA 33, Center-46-A.Brewer. 14-J.Landry to ARI 47 for 20 yards (89-H.Valles).

The Three Options

GO -1.39 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.25 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 76, worth -2.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 34, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model