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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 3 at the 68

Miami Dolphins 23 – Arizona Cardinals 23

What Actually Happened

(2:04) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 44 yards to ARI 24, Center-92-J.Denney. 21-P.Peterson to ARI 25 for 1 yard (46-N.Hewitt).

The Three Options

GO -0.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.34 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 68, worth -2.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.03 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 26, worth -1.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP