Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 9 at the 89

Miami Dolphins 23 – Arizona Cardinals 15

(5:24) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 39 yards to 50, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-35-W.Aikens.

The Three Options

GO -2.87 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.56 EP
63% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 89, worth -4.91 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model