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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 6 at the 41

Miami Dolphins 21 – Arizona Cardinals 9

What Actually Happened

(13:56) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 40 yards to ARI 1, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-35-W.Aikens.

The Three Options

GO +0.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.62 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 41, worth -1.90 EP
KICK -0.81 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.63 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 12, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model