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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 11 at the 23

Arizona Cardinals 6 – Miami Dolphins 14

What Actually Happened

(3:08) (Field Goal formation) 7-C.Catanzaro 41 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-D.Butler.

The Three Options

GO +0.63 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.88 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 23, worth -1.00 EP
KICK +1.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 33, worth -1.71 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model