Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 8 at the 97

Arizona Cardinals 6 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(14:50) (Punt formation) 2-D.Butler punts 62 yards to MIA 35, Center-46-A.Brewer. 14-J.Landry to ARI 48 for 17 yards (33-K.Williams). PENALTY on ARI-10-B.Golden, Illegal Motion, 5 yards, enforced at ARI 48.

The Three Options

GO -3.90 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 89, worth -0.64 EP
59% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 97, worth -6.18 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (114 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model