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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 10 at the 45

Washington Commanders 0 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(1:07) 5-T.Way punts 30 yards to ARI 15, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 21-P.Peterson. PENALTY on ARI-29-T.Simon, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at ARI 15.

The Three Options

GO -0.57 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.48 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 45, worth -2.58 EP
KICK -1.03 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -3.00 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 12, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model