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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 10

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Washington Commanders 6

What Actually Happened

(:11) 7-C.Catanzaro 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-D.Butler.

The Three Options

GO +2.03 EP
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +3.82 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 10, worth +0.03 EP
KICK +2.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.02 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model