4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 1

Washington Commanders 3 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(1:55) 3-D.Hopkins 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +3.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.74 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 1, worth -0.28 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -1.00 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.89 EP