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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 15 at the 80

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Washington Commanders 3

What Actually Happened

(7:26) 2-D.Butler punts 28 yards to ARI 48, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.55 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.91 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 80, worth -4.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 37, worth -1.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model