Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 7 at the 74

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Washington Commanders 0

(13:32) 2-D.Butler punts 50 yards to WAS 24, Center-46-A.Brewer. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 31 for 7 yards (22-T.Jefferson, 52-Z.Gooden).

The Three Options

GO -1.72 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.86 EP
60% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 74, worth -4.11 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model