Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 13 at the 79

Miami Dolphins 0 – Baltimore Ravens 24

What Actually Happened

(:15) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 48 yards to BAL 31, Center-92-J.Denney. 14-D.Hester to BAL 45 for 14 yards (42-S.Paysinger). PENALTY on BAL-91-M.Judon, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 30.

The Three Options

GO -2.83 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.05 EP
70% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 79, worth -4.54 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model