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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 50

Baltimore Ravens 24 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(2:48) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 43 yards to MIA 7, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 19-J.Grant.

The Three Options

GO -0.16 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.07 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 50, worth -2.41 EP
KICK -1.04 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.49 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 14, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model