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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 55

New York Jets 3 – Indianapolis Colts 41

What Actually Happened

(13:36) (Shotgun) 9-B.Petty pass short right to 15-B.Marshall to NYJ 49 for 4 yards (30-R.Melvin).

The Three Options

GO +0.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.60 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 55, worth -2.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.58 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 16, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model