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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 63

New York Jets 3 – Indianapolis Colts 31

What Actually Happened

(6:34) 4-L.Edwards punts 54 yards to IND 9, Center-46-T.Purdum. 80-C.Rogers to IND 39 for 30 yards (4-L.Edwards).

The Three Options

GO -1.44 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.67 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 63, worth -3.56 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model