Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 66

New York Jets 3 – Indianapolis Colts 17

(6:45) 4-L.Edwards punts 36 yards to IND 30, Center-46-T.Purdum, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.10 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.13 EP
57% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 66, worth -3.49 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model