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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 17 at the 20

New York Jets 0 – Indianapolis Colts 14

What Actually Happened

(10:36) 2-N.Folk 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +0.78 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.16 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 20, worth -0.77 EP
KICK +1.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30, worth -1.24 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model