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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 10 at the 85

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(5:54) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 48 yards to MIN 37, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.95 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.50 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 85, worth -5.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 43, worth -2.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model