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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 72

Dallas Cowboys 17 – Minnesota Vikings 9

What Actually Happened

(2:20) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 41 yards to MIN 31, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 84-C.Patterson MUFFS catch, recovered by MIN-57-A.Cole at MIN 35. 57-A.Cole to MIN 35 for no gain (91-L.Ladouceur).

The Three Options

GO -1.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +0.53 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 72, worth -3.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.90 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 30, worth -1.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP