Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 12 at the 64

Minnesota Vikings 9 – Dallas Cowboys 17

What Actually Happened

(3:08) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 32 yards to DAL 32, Center-47-K.McDermott. 13-L.Whitehead to DAL 34 for 2 yards (94-J.Trattou). PENALTY on DAL-35-K.Frazier, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 32.

The Three Options

GO -1.44 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +1.87 EP
69% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 64, worth -2.91 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model