4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 6 at the 15

Minnesota Vikings 6 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(14:15) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

The Three Options

GO +1.70 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.35 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 15, worth -0.32 EP
KICK +2.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25, worth -0.84 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model