4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 4 at the 18

Minnesota Vikings 3 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(2:14) 2-K.Forbath 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

The Three Options

GO +1.84 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.12 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 18, worth -0.59 EP
KICK +1.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 28, worth -1.20 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model