Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 13 at the 75

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Minnesota Vikings 3

(7:09) 6-C.Jones punts 42 yards to MIN 33, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, downed by DAL-51-K.Wilber.

The Three Options

GO -2.33 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.85 EP
66% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 75, worth -4.46 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model