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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 16 at the 47

Minnesota Vikings 3 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(10:25) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 38 yards to DAL 9, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.

The Three Options

GO -0.93 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.99 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 47, worth -2.59 EP
KICK -0.92 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.75 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 13, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model