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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 8 at the 65

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(12:30) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 55 yards to MIN 10, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 19-A.Thielen to MIN 11 for 1 yard (51-K.Wilber).

The Three Options

GO -1.64 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.92 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 65, worth -4.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 23, worth -1.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model