4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 9 at the 48

Minnesota Vikings 3 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(3:24) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 16 yards to DAL 32, Center-47-K.McDermott, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.37 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.51 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 48, worth -2.31 EP
KICK -0.79 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.36 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 14, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model