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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 46

Carolina Panthers 7 – Seattle Seahawks 37

What Actually Happened

(9:36) 5-M.Palardy punts 46 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.23 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.45 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 46, worth -1.92 EP
KICK -0.57 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.13 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 13, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model