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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 12 at the 16

Carolina Panthers 7 – Seattle Seahawks 30

What Actually Happened

(1:29) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete deep right to 13-K.Benjamin. Penalty on CAR-13-K.Benjamin, Offensive Pass Interference, declined.

The Three Options

GO +1.16 EP
What Happened
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.84 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 16, worth -0.46 EP
KICK +1.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26, worth -1.00 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.69 EP