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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 11 at the 76

Seattle Seahawks 30 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(6:22) 9-J.Ryan punts 41 yards to CAR 35, Center-48-N.Frese, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.37 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.51 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 76, worth -4.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 34, worth -1.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model