Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 75

Carolina Panthers 7 – Seattle Seahawks 20

What Actually Happened

(1:30) 5-M.Palardy punts 52 yards to SEA 23, Center-44-J.Jansen. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 35 for 12 yards (14-J.Webb). PENALTY on SEA-58-K.Pierre-Louis, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 25.

The Three Options

GO -2.31 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.31 EP
65% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 75, worth -4.24 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model