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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 5 at the 5

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:26) 4-S.Hauschka 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

The Three Options

GO +2.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.29 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 5, worth +0.38 EP
KICK +2.29 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.35 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.38 EP
PUNT +0.16 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP