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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 9 at the 9

Buffalo Bills 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(8:06) 2-D.Carpenter 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

The Three Options

GO +1.55 EP
  • 31% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.60 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 9, worth -0.24 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model