Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 9 at the 59

Las Vegas Raiders 30 – Buffalo Bills 24

(11:06) 7-M.King punts 55 yards to BUF 4, Center-59-J.Condo, downed by LV-18-A.Holmes.

The Three Options

GO -0.94 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.63 EP
65% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 59, worth -2.86 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model