Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 8 at the 73

Buffalo Bills 24 – Las Vegas Raiders 30

What Actually Happened

(13:20) 6-C.Schmidt punts 48 yards to LV 25, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 30-J.Richard pushed ob at 50 for 25 yards (6-C.Schmidt). PENALTY on LV-56-D.Bates, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LV 25.

The Three Options

GO -2.10 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.19 EP
60% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 73, worth -4.30 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model