Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 15 at the 80

Buffalo Bills 24 – Las Vegas Raiders 23

(14:56) 6-C.Schmidt punts 39 yards to LV 41, Center-65-G.Sanborn, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.81 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.12 EP
69% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 80, worth -4.60 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model